🧭 The Tactical Allocation Letter – Weekly Update (July 19, 2025)

+24% CAGR over Decades. Minimal Drawdowns. This Week in summary.

📈 Weekly Market Recap — Week Ending July 19, 2025

U.S. equities ended the week on solid footing, led once again by tech and AI momentum. The S&P 500 gained +0.6%, briefly hitting a fresh all-time high before a slight Friday pullback. The Nasdaq Composite outperformed with +1.5%, closing at a new record for the fifth session in a row. The Dow Jones ended nearly flat (–0.1%), while the Russell 2000 rose +0.2%.

Corporate earnings continued to impress. Reports from PepsiCo, United Airlines, and several regional banks exceeded expectations. Solid retail sales and falling jobless claims reinforced the soft landing narrative. The economy appears to be cooling gradually—without stalling.

Fed Governor Waller hinted at potential rate cuts later this year, contingent on further disinflation. That tone helped push 10-year Treasury yields down to 4.42%, supporting equity valuations.

Semiconductors led sector performance, driven by earnings and continued AI infrastructure demand. Nvidia and AMD rallied, while Netflix dropped despite strong results—reminding investors that high expectations remain hard to beat.

Markets largely ignored renewed tariff talk, focusing instead on earnings and liquidity. Investor sentiment remains upbeat, with positioning favoring risk assets.

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Looking Ahead:
Next week brings earnings from Tesla, Alphabet, and key financials. Macro focus will be on housing data and further Fed commentary. As of now, momentum remains strong—but stretched. Tactical vigilance is warranted.

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Check out the backtest over the last decades:

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🔍 What You’ll Find in Every Weekly Issue

In case you’re new: this newsletter shares one thing each week—the current positioning of our 3-asset tactical model, based on objective signals.

We only hold an asset if it meets our regime filters. Otherwise, we park the allocation in a money market fund to reduce drawdowns.

• 50% UPRO (3x S&P 500)

• 25% Bitcoin

• 25% Gold

Each position is either active or in cash. That’s it. No guessing. No emotion.

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The headlines don’t help you. The model does.

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📊 Full allocation breakdown
⚙️ Which system fired (and why)No narratives. No noise. Just structure.

In 2022, while the Nasdaq tanked –33%, the model gained +30%.
That’s not a story. That’s a system.

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✅ Paid Section: Current Allocation

🧩 This Week’s Allocation: